The Story of the Proud Father. Pakistan, Taliban and the World.

Once upon a time, there lived a good man in a good village. He was blessed with a nice house, productive fields and a loving wife. When a little baby boy was born to him, he was overjoyed. He looked after and pampered his son a lot. The son grew up to be a healthy and handsome teenager. His father was very proud of him indeed.

   One day, the door was knocked and the villager was surprised to find four of his neighbors standing at the door. They complained that his son was beating little children and teasing the girls of the village. This was a big shock for the proud father. He flew into a rage and said that this was surely a false allegation made by the jealous neighbors. Taking care of their children was not his responsibility. Firstly his son was a nice boy and could not possibly do anything wrong, and secondly, even if he was doing it, they should arrange for the protection of their own children. And he told his poor neighbors to get lost.

   As time passed, the complaints by the fellow villagers became more and more frequent, but the proud father was convinced that this was all a conspiracy and the whole village was jealous of him. They were just looking for an excuse to snatch his house and fields.

   But we should all remember what the wise old people said: as you sow, so shall you reap. The handsome teenager became a tall strong man and his proud father grew old and weak. Now the son will not give his father food, and beat him up whenever he felt like it. When his friends consoled him, the proud father explained that this was not really his son who was abusing him. It was actually his evil friends and jealous neighbors who were using his simple innocent son to get him beaten. And still he was proud of him.

   Finally, the whole village realized that the son was now stronger than his father and was no longer under his control. They called a panjayat and decided to expel the son from the village. The proud father got very angry and warned them that they will never be able to defeat his strong and brave son and snatch his house and fields. The only solution was that the village should accept his abuse as he had himself accepted it. But the villagers had had enough. They all got together with their sticks and axes and went after the son.

   I hope you remember the story of the weak sticks that made a strong bundle. Although the son was taller and stronger than any other villager, and did actually thrash quite a few of them, he could get no help from anyone, while the villagers just kept on coming till the son was tired and bruised and finally ran away from the village, never to return. The father lived the rest of his days in peace in his peaceful home and peaceful village. But whenever the topic of his son came up, the proud father insisted that it was indeed a great conspiracy.

Zulfiqar Mirza kills a holy cow, strengthens democracy

28 August will be remembered as the day when another holy cow of Pakistani politics was slain. There are moments in history when the pressures that have built up over a long period of time finally find a crack and burst the dam. The dam this time was the media silence over MQM violence and the crack was Zulfiqar Mirza. Now everything about Karachi is in the open. This is good for Karachi and good for democracy.
   What happened? Z Mirza finally said everything in great detail which no one had dared to say before. the politicians will not criticise MQM violence because of its assembly seats, media will not touch it because its cable will be cut, army forgave the killing of its own officers because it needed MQM for its political games and even judiciary chose to forget about 12 May 2007 massacre since the life of senior judges was not safe. But Z Mirza's press conference was telecast live by all channels for over 2 hours. Z Mirza also presented a lot of evidence which he had gathered as interior minister of Sindh. Other media people later added more documents of their own to strengthen the case. The rather blatant use of Quran by Mirza greatly strengthened his case, although most of non-Muhajir Pakistanis already agreed with all he said. This silence cannot be re-imposed by MQM.
    What's the back ground? The province of Sindh is divided since 1947 between native Sindhis and urdu-speaking Muhajirs. Their cultures were so different that they could not integrate with each other. First the religious parties (JI and JUI) and later MQM controlled the Muhajir votes. MQM led by Altaf Hussain is so strong that it knows that no party or Army cannot rule Pakistan without their support. So they have blackmailed every one, but this Federal government of Sindhis has survived for too long. PPP and ANP have used these 3 years to organise and weaponise themselves. MQM was coming under increasing pressure from PPP Balochis and ANP Pakhtuns. The tension in Karachi is increasing as the next elections come nearer since PPP wants to redesign the local bodies and the constituencies of Federal and Provincial assemblies. This means death for MQM so it is violently resisting. Zulfiqar Mirza was the leader of the Sindhi nationalist faction of PPP. Rehaman Malik is the person responsible to keep PPP in power by keeping MQM in government at all costs. The restoration of Nazim system after a brief change was necessary to save the Federal government but was unacceptable to Sindhi nationalists.
    Why now? Zardari told Mirza to keep quite but he could not. Finally Zardari called Mirza to Islamabad and ordered him to leave politicas and leave Pakistan to become an ambassador in some far off country. This was a huge personal insult for Mirza who decided to end everyone's politics with him. Thus he held that press conference.
    Consequences? They are many. Zulfiqar Mirza's political career is of course finished for ever. But the really significant result is that the media silence about MQM violence has ended. MQM will face intense pressure from the media about every killing from now on. This media exposure will force Zardari to choose between the devil and the deep sea. If he pleases MQM, the Sindhis will reject PPP in next elections to be replaced by nationalist parties. If Zardari sides with Sindhi public opinion then MQM will bring down the federal government. At the moment Zardari has decided to save the government and ditch Mirza, but as the elections come nearer, he will start siding with Sindhis and may restore the old Local body system. This will result in violence from MQM and a major and a bloody crackdown from government.
    Why it is good for democracy? There should be no holy cows in politics. Everyone should be exposed to criticism from media. Musharraf's barrier was broken on the day he dismissed the Chief justice, Taliban's barrier broke on the day the Swat girl whipping video came out and the Army lost its holiness on the day Osama bin Ladin was assassinated and now MQM has lost its cover. Whatever may be the fate of Mirza, Zardari, MQM and PPP, the democracy has been strengthened by this incident.

Why peace talks with Taliban will fail

A lot of media discussion and official effort in Washington, Kabul and Islamabad is spent on the possibility of solving the Taliban war in Afghanistan and Pakistan by Peace talks. But they are almost certain to fail because of a basic flaw. Peace talks only succeed when both sides are convinced that they cannot win the war by military means. That is why US was not interested in peace talks in 2001. Now US has realised that it cannot defeat the Taliban militarily. But Taliban today believe that US has lost the war and they will get the whole Afghanistan after 2014. So why should they compromise for less than complete victory? The answer is that they should not.
The most likely scenario for peace talks is somewhere around 2016. Why be so pessimist? US will withdraw from Afghanistan although it will probably keep some military bases. Then Taliban will launch an all out attack to capture Kabul. If successful, there will be a Taliban government. I think this is highly unlikely but will discuss it later. Most probably there will be a stalemate with some area under control of Taliban and some under Kabul government. When it becomes clear to Taliban that they willl not be able to win the war, they willl finally consider peace talks. It helps that US will not be able to supervise those talks which will be only between Afghans themselves. What kind of final settlement will result is hard to predict, but any peace is better than civil war.
Over the long term, people of Afghanistan will be gradually exposed to mobile phones and satellite TV. These two things result in a fundamental change in the thinking of the people. You can see the result of this Live TV news and SMS revolution in the decline of Pakistan army, the Arab revolutions and the Lokpal bill in India. More and more young people will desire to have a share in the decision-making process. This means democracy, even in Taliban areas. So democracy will come to Afghanistan, but not very soon.
Predictions? Continued US-Taliban stalemate till 2014, Taliban-Kabul stalemate till 2015, peace talks and ceasefire around 2016, local and national democracy in all of Afghanistan 2025.  This is as optimistic as I can be.

What really happened: Osama bin Laden assasination

How a wall wrecked a helicopter and a reputation.

How can Osama stay 6 years in army cantonment without being detected? Simple, he cannot. He was a guest of ISI, living under their protection.

How can US troops come from Afghanistan, do the raid and return without being detected? Simple, they cannot. They came with Pakistan's knowledge and permission.


The operation which killed Osama bin Laden was not a resounding success. In fact, it was a disaster for one of the key men who authorised it, yes, I am talking about General Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff.
   Here is what I believe actually happened. This version can explain almost all the available facts. Osama bin Laden was arrested at some time between September 2001 and  2005 by ISI, probably while under treatment in a private Karachi hospital. The arrest put Pak army in a very difficult position. Can Osama, the Mujahid, be extradited from the 'Fortress of Islam' to Guantanamo bay? Impossible. Can Osama be kept in a Pakistani prison after announcing the arrest to the public and the US? Impossible. So the Army followed the only available option. Instead of announcing the arrest, Pakistan military decided to quitly keep him in custody believing he will come in handy at some difficult time. ISI built the safe house specially for this purpose at a location where no journalist or foreigner can reach without army permission, that is, Abbotabad Cantonment.
   Americans finally traced bin Laden down by  following suspects, satellite imagery and brutal interrogation. US special forces then planned and trained for the final raid. The only problem was secrecy. They were confident that they could do it without being detected by Pakistan army and air force. But Obama still did not want to take the remote risk of something going wrong during the raid resulting in a firefight with Pakistani forces. So Admiral Mike Mullen came to Kayani on April 21 and showed him the photographic proof that they had found bin Ladin in a Pak army cantonment area. Kayani must have been shocked and embarrassed. Mullen said that they had bin Laden under satellite and on-ground observation so Pakistan could not help him escape now, that the only way to save Pak army's reputation was a secret US mission. Kayani was told to keep quite and express complete ignorance, the raid will be called a local terrorist strike, the compound will be empty in the morning (no bodies, no family), no one will know what happened at the compound, Pak army will keep it sealed, and US will announce after a delay of a few days that bin Laden has been captured at an undisclosed location. This of course was the plan. Kayani met General Petraeus at Chaklala airfield on 25 April and went with him on US aircraft to an undisclosed location, probably Kabul, for direct video conference with Obama and his National Security team which is on record to be meeting at the same time in White House. Kayani agreed that in the unlikely event that the US forces were detected by radar or direct observation, he will ensure that Pak forces did not attack them. Gen Kayani then conveyed this to the Pak Air Force Chief in a Joint Staff meeting the next day, General Pasha, the ISI Chief was of course present.
   The helicopters, a new stealth design not detectable by radar, duly took off from Afghanistan and reached Abbotabad compound undetected. They probably included two stealth Black Hawks for the personnel and two Apache Gunships to provide protection in case of any heavy weapon resistance from the ground. All this was being telecast live to White House by a couple of drones circling overhead which had reached the site before the choppers.  Then the choppers came close to ground to drop the commandos by ropes. And then it happened. The walls were high, interrupting the airflow from rotors, the pilot was nervous or the bin Ladin body guards shot at it, but somehow the helicopter was damaged and crashed with a bang. At that moment, the secrecy was lost, and Kayani was doomed! The SEALs were on a 'kill mission'. They killed every male in the compound and a poor woman. With the loss of one Black Hawk, the plan to take away all living and dead inhabitants back to Afghanistan could not now be carried out, so they abandoned the women and children. This was past midnight, but the crash was beginning to be reported on live TV, only by phone at this stage, no videos yet. Local Pakistan military units were on standby but Kayani told them to do nothing to engage the US choppers which flew safely back after destroying the damaged one.
   The presence of the helicopter parts and bin Laden's family members at Abbotabad made the initial post-operative cover up plan impossible. So Obama now told the poor irrelevant president of Pakistan who immediately congratulated him, typically unaware of the storm about to break. US now announced the raid without delay since the bin Laden death and the Abbotabad incident would have been connected by media anyways. But Kayani and Pak army were in an impossible situation. Everybody would now know that they had hidden bin Laden in an army garrison. Their years of lies and duplicity would be exposed. Kayani would be left to explain it all to his own senior commanders who did not know about bin Ladin before the incident. Sadly, there was not even a lame excuse that could be offered, and US could not help him in this. So Kayani and Pasha along with the ISPR (Inter Services Public Relations Office) went into hiding. They did not provide the civilian leadership with any storyline so none of the ministers will dare to say anything either. And this is the whole story.
   What about the future? I believe that at a certain stage of career and age, human beings become incapable of changing their basic beliefs and illusions. Generals Kayani and Pasha are at that stage. They did not change course after the Mumbai incident or after the Raymond Davis affair. And they are unlikely to change now. They believe that America is bad and jihad is good. Due to purely practical considerations Pakistan must cooperate with US, but this help should be as little as possible. Their fixed idea is that US will lose the Afghan war, Taliban will return to power and jihadis will bleed India to death. That the reality is very different does not register in their consciousness. And there is no way to remove them from their posts in the near future. So Pakistan, and of course the US, Afghanistan and India are in for a very rough ride ahead.

P.S. How did I reach these conclusions? Simple, my dear Watson. When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

North Waziristan operation imminent?

Game plan: 

Pakistan army loudly protests drone attacks.

US announces drone attacks suspended.

Pak army announces N Waziristan operation.

Pak army gets even more CSF (Coalition support Fund) dollars and high-tech weapons. Baloch nationalists expelled from Afghanistan.

Evidence: 

Pak army, government politicians and media have all simultaneously started a loud new campaign against an old problem, namely drones.

Gen Kayani launches a new road project to be constructed by army which will extend from Bannu to Ghulam Khan border town, meaning heavy machinery and troops will enter the complete length of N waziristan. The bulldozers may be used to build roads or demolish taliban bunkers. ( http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/14/pakistan-army-to-build-road-link-to-afghanistan.html )

The federal government has directed the Fata Disaster Management Authority to prepare a contingency plan for thousands of families likely to be uprooted after a military operation in North Waziristan Agency, says Dawn.

Consequences:

Afghan Taliban, particularly Haqqani group who is an old ally of Pak army, will be broken. Security will improve in  Afghanistan.

TTP (Pakistani taliban) and other jihadi groups will be greatly weakened as well. Security will improve in  Pakistan.

In the initial phase, Taliban, Afghani and pakistani, will launch the most ferocious attacks possible against Pak army and the whole civilian population of Pakistan to stop the Waziristan Operation. 

 Is Pakistan really nearing the end of the Jihadi Dream? Let's pray we are. May peace return to Pakistan and her neighbours.

Missing Baby Girls in India

The latest indian census shows that the number of baby girls born in India is much less than the natural ratio. This almost certainly indicates that modern technology, specially ultrasound, which helps in finding out the baby's sex before birth is being misused to abort the girls. It hurts me personally as a Punjabi that the highest ratio of 'missing baby girls' is in Punjab, followed by her neighbour Haryana.We can also be certain that the same thing is happening in Pakistani Punjab as well.
It is also worth noticing that the only state with the natural ratio of baby girls is not the richest, but the most educated, namely Kerala.
The following graph has been copied from Economist, 9April 2011.