The elections are finally here but there is still a lot of
anxiety whether they will be held on time, or held at all. Of course there are
no certainties in politics but there are some larger trends which are more
powerful than individual players. The information technology, including
satellite TV, mobile phones and internet will ensure that there will never be
another Martial Law in Pakistan, or anywhere else in the world.
Let me explain. Crime needs a cover. No criminal is more
powerful than the whole society. A strong man cannot beat an old lady in the
middle of a busy street because the society will interfere against the cruelty.
Preparation for Martial Law needs the cover of a censored media. No conspiracy
can work if every meeting between Generals and politicians gets reported in
media. A general can still possibly capture Islamabad with tanks and impose
censorship on the news channels, but not on email and twitter. If government
closes the entire internet and SMS service for a long time, then the economy
will collapse, family contacts will be broken and the whole public will turn
against that government. If the dictator uses violence to crush the public, the
world media will reveal it. Every country has enemies and jealous neighbours
who will help the rebels to overthrow the dictator.
Information technology brings democracy because mobile
phones and internet, specifically SMS and social media (Facebook, twitter,
emails) give ordinary citizen a lot of freedom. Everyone can get information
from any news source in the world and similarly we can all express ourselves
freely and rapidly about ongoing events. This forces the rulers to respond to
the public opinion otherwise they will be overthrown by the same public.
The reason why the assemblies have completed their tenure
for the first time in Pakistan’s history is not the skill of Zardari but new
power of the social media. The internet and SMS cannot be controlled without
closing down the entire economy. This social media defended the news channels
when they were closed by Musharraf, the channels restored the judiciary when
the dictator dismissed the judges, and the judiciary has protected the
constitution against the next batch of conspiracies. This alliance of freedom
cannot be defeated by any General or Taliban.
There is another more philosophical basis of this faith in
permanent democracy. When the Humans lived as tribes in the forest or deserts,
the only form of government was the tribal leader. When we leant agriculture,
the society changed. Now there were kings who had slaves to work in the fields.
Next came the industrial revolution which gave allowed a dictator to organise a
huge army to control his own people and to invade the neighbours. But factories
require technical people, so slavery was abolished and workers were hired on
salary. And now the information revolution has come and has given the freedom
of information and speech to the common man. This is the reason that peoples’
power has suddenly risen all over the world. General Musharraf was removed in Pakistan,
Arab dictators were overthrown, democratic governments now control almost all
of Africa and even advanced democracies faced “Occupy Wall Street” movements by
ordinary citizens.
Once the Human society has reached a more advanced stage of
progress, it cannot easily go back. So the chances of martial Law in Pakistan
are about the same as the chances of return of the Mughal Kingdom. Just relax
and join the fun of a historic democratic transition in Pakistan and the whole
world.
