How a wall wrecked a helicopter and a reputation.
How can Osama stay 6 years in army cantonment without being detected? Simple, he cannot. He was a guest of ISI, living under their protection.
How can US troops come from Afghanistan, do the raid and return without being detected? Simple, they cannot. They came with Pakistan's knowledge and permission.
The operation which killed Osama bin Laden was not a resounding success. In fact, it was a disaster for one of the key men who authorised it, yes, I am talking about General Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff.
Here is what I believe actually happened. This version can explain almost all the available facts. Osama bin Laden was arrested at some time between September 2001 and 2005 by ISI, probably while under treatment in a private Karachi hospital. The arrest put Pak army in a very difficult position. Can Osama, the Mujahid, be extradited from the 'Fortress of Islam' to Guantanamo bay? Impossible. Can Osama be kept in a Pakistani prison after announcing the arrest to the public and the US? Impossible. So the Army followed the only available option. Instead of announcing the arrest, Pakistan military decided to quitly keep him in custody believing he will come in handy at some difficult time. ISI built the safe house specially for this purpose at a location where no journalist or foreigner can reach without army permission, that is, Abbotabad Cantonment.
Americans finally traced bin Laden down by following suspects, satellite imagery and brutal interrogation. US special forces then planned and trained for the final raid. The only problem was secrecy. They were confident that they could do it without being detected by Pakistan army and air force. But Obama still did not want to take the remote risk of something going wrong during the raid resulting in a firefight with Pakistani forces. So Admiral Mike Mullen came to Kayani on April 21 and showed him the photographic proof that they had found bin Ladin in a Pak army cantonment area. Kayani must have been shocked and embarrassed. Mullen said that they had bin Laden under satellite and on-ground observation so Pakistan could not help him escape now, that the only way to save Pak army's reputation was a secret US mission. Kayani was told to keep quite and express complete ignorance, the raid will be called a local terrorist strike, the compound will be empty in the morning (no bodies, no family), no one will know what happened at the compound, Pak army will keep it sealed, and US will announce after a delay of a few days that bin Laden has been captured at an undisclosed location. This of course was the plan. Kayani met General Petraeus at Chaklala airfield on 25 April and went with him on US aircraft to an undisclosed location, probably Kabul, for direct video conference with Obama and his National Security team which is on record to be meeting at the same time in White House. Kayani agreed that in the unlikely event that the US forces were detected by radar or direct observation, he will ensure that Pak forces did not attack them. Gen Kayani then conveyed this to the Pak Air Force Chief in a Joint Staff meeting the next day, General Pasha, the ISI Chief was of course present.
The helicopters, a new stealth design not detectable by radar, duly took off from Afghanistan and reached Abbotabad compound undetected. They probably included two stealth Black Hawks for the personnel and two Apache Gunships to provide protection in case of any heavy weapon resistance from the ground. All this was being telecast live to White House by a couple of drones circling overhead which had reached the site before the choppers. Then the choppers came close to ground to drop the commandos by ropes. And then it happened. The walls were high, interrupting the airflow from rotors, the pilot was nervous or the bin Ladin body guards shot at it, but somehow the helicopter was damaged and crashed with a bang. At that moment, the secrecy was lost, and Kayani was doomed! The SEALs were on a 'kill mission'. They killed every male in the compound and a poor woman. With the loss of one Black Hawk, the plan to take away all living and dead inhabitants back to Afghanistan could not now be carried out, so they abandoned the women and children. This was past midnight, but the crash was beginning to be reported on live TV, only by phone at this stage, no videos yet. Local Pakistan military units were on standby but Kayani told them to do nothing to engage the US choppers which flew safely back after destroying the damaged one.
The presence of the helicopter parts and bin Laden's family members at Abbotabad made the initial post-operative cover up plan impossible. So Obama now told the poor irrelevant president of Pakistan who immediately congratulated him, typically unaware of the storm about to break. US now announced the raid without delay since the bin Laden death and the Abbotabad incident would have been connected by media anyways. But Kayani and Pak army were in an impossible situation. Everybody would now know that they had hidden bin Laden in an army garrison. Their years of lies and duplicity would be exposed. Kayani would be left to explain it all to his own senior commanders who did not know about bin Ladin before the incident. Sadly, there was not even a lame excuse that could be offered, and US could not help him in this. So Kayani and Pasha along with the ISPR (Inter Services Public Relations Office) went into hiding. They did not provide the civilian leadership with any storyline so none of the ministers will dare to say anything either. And this is the whole story.
What about the future? I believe that at a certain stage of career and age, human beings become incapable of changing their basic beliefs and illusions. Generals Kayani and Pasha are at that stage. They did not change course after the Mumbai incident or after the Raymond Davis affair. And they are unlikely to change now. They believe that America is bad and jihad is good. Due to purely practical considerations Pakistan must cooperate with US, but this help should be as little as possible. Their fixed idea is that US will lose the Afghan war, Taliban will return to power and jihadis will bleed India to death. That the reality is very different does not register in their consciousness. And there is no way to remove them from their posts in the near future. So Pakistan, and of course the US, Afghanistan and India are in for a very rough ride ahead.
P.S. How did I reach these conclusions? Simple, my dear Watson. When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!
How can Osama stay 6 years in army cantonment without being detected? Simple, he cannot. He was a guest of ISI, living under their protection.
How can US troops come from Afghanistan, do the raid and return without being detected? Simple, they cannot. They came with Pakistan's knowledge and permission.
The operation which killed Osama bin Laden was not a resounding success. In fact, it was a disaster for one of the key men who authorised it, yes, I am talking about General Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff.
Here is what I believe actually happened. This version can explain almost all the available facts. Osama bin Laden was arrested at some time between September 2001 and 2005 by ISI, probably while under treatment in a private Karachi hospital. The arrest put Pak army in a very difficult position. Can Osama, the Mujahid, be extradited from the 'Fortress of Islam' to Guantanamo bay? Impossible. Can Osama be kept in a Pakistani prison after announcing the arrest to the public and the US? Impossible. So the Army followed the only available option. Instead of announcing the arrest, Pakistan military decided to quitly keep him in custody believing he will come in handy at some difficult time. ISI built the safe house specially for this purpose at a location where no journalist or foreigner can reach without army permission, that is, Abbotabad Cantonment.
Americans finally traced bin Laden down by following suspects, satellite imagery and brutal interrogation. US special forces then planned and trained for the final raid. The only problem was secrecy. They were confident that they could do it without being detected by Pakistan army and air force. But Obama still did not want to take the remote risk of something going wrong during the raid resulting in a firefight with Pakistani forces. So Admiral Mike Mullen came to Kayani on April 21 and showed him the photographic proof that they had found bin Ladin in a Pak army cantonment area. Kayani must have been shocked and embarrassed. Mullen said that they had bin Laden under satellite and on-ground observation so Pakistan could not help him escape now, that the only way to save Pak army's reputation was a secret US mission. Kayani was told to keep quite and express complete ignorance, the raid will be called a local terrorist strike, the compound will be empty in the morning (no bodies, no family), no one will know what happened at the compound, Pak army will keep it sealed, and US will announce after a delay of a few days that bin Laden has been captured at an undisclosed location. This of course was the plan. Kayani met General Petraeus at Chaklala airfield on 25 April and went with him on US aircraft to an undisclosed location, probably Kabul, for direct video conference with Obama and his National Security team which is on record to be meeting at the same time in White House. Kayani agreed that in the unlikely event that the US forces were detected by radar or direct observation, he will ensure that Pak forces did not attack them. Gen Kayani then conveyed this to the Pak Air Force Chief in a Joint Staff meeting the next day, General Pasha, the ISI Chief was of course present.
The helicopters, a new stealth design not detectable by radar, duly took off from Afghanistan and reached Abbotabad compound undetected. They probably included two stealth Black Hawks for the personnel and two Apache Gunships to provide protection in case of any heavy weapon resistance from the ground. All this was being telecast live to White House by a couple of drones circling overhead which had reached the site before the choppers. Then the choppers came close to ground to drop the commandos by ropes. And then it happened. The walls were high, interrupting the airflow from rotors, the pilot was nervous or the bin Ladin body guards shot at it, but somehow the helicopter was damaged and crashed with a bang. At that moment, the secrecy was lost, and Kayani was doomed! The SEALs were on a 'kill mission'. They killed every male in the compound and a poor woman. With the loss of one Black Hawk, the plan to take away all living and dead inhabitants back to Afghanistan could not now be carried out, so they abandoned the women and children. This was past midnight, but the crash was beginning to be reported on live TV, only by phone at this stage, no videos yet. Local Pakistan military units were on standby but Kayani told them to do nothing to engage the US choppers which flew safely back after destroying the damaged one.
The presence of the helicopter parts and bin Laden's family members at Abbotabad made the initial post-operative cover up plan impossible. So Obama now told the poor irrelevant president of Pakistan who immediately congratulated him, typically unaware of the storm about to break. US now announced the raid without delay since the bin Laden death and the Abbotabad incident would have been connected by media anyways. But Kayani and Pak army were in an impossible situation. Everybody would now know that they had hidden bin Laden in an army garrison. Their years of lies and duplicity would be exposed. Kayani would be left to explain it all to his own senior commanders who did not know about bin Ladin before the incident. Sadly, there was not even a lame excuse that could be offered, and US could not help him in this. So Kayani and Pasha along with the ISPR (Inter Services Public Relations Office) went into hiding. They did not provide the civilian leadership with any storyline so none of the ministers will dare to say anything either. And this is the whole story.
What about the future? I believe that at a certain stage of career and age, human beings become incapable of changing their basic beliefs and illusions. Generals Kayani and Pasha are at that stage. They did not change course after the Mumbai incident or after the Raymond Davis affair. And they are unlikely to change now. They believe that America is bad and jihad is good. Due to purely practical considerations Pakistan must cooperate with US, but this help should be as little as possible. Their fixed idea is that US will lose the Afghan war, Taliban will return to power and jihadis will bleed India to death. That the reality is very different does not register in their consciousness. And there is no way to remove them from their posts in the near future. So Pakistan, and of course the US, Afghanistan and India are in for a very rough ride ahead.
P.S. How did I reach these conclusions? Simple, my dear Watson. When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!
