Pakistan has had a fairly free and active democratic process, a much freer media and a free judiciary for the last 3 years. Still all we hear on media and the street is how democracy has once again failed to deliver for the people. The most critical evidence is the economic crisis in the country, with its various manifestations like inflation in food and fuel, unemployment, government debt, shortage of electricity and gas and so on.
The supporters of democracy have always claimed that it will bring peace, freedom, economic development and all-around happiness for the ordinary people. They claim that every country which is 'rich and free' is a democracy. So why does the global evidence in support of democracy does not apply in case of Pakistan?
Let us start from the basics of economy. Economic development needs many factors to work in its favour. Pakistan has almost all of them, like a young workforce, reasonable English education, good internet and mobile network, generous foreign aid and a large customer base, but the vital factor still missing is peace.
Lack of peace is what blocks all attempts to develop the economy. Obviously, no investor in his right mind will fix his money in a place where his factory might be blown up any day and where he cannot safely visit his area of business. Corruption is not the basic cause of the failing Pakistan economy. India and china are riddled with corruption at all levels, yet they are maintaining record-breaking growth rates.
The next question is why democracy cannot establish peace. And now we are in difficult territory. The ruling coalition is firmly and openly anti-war. If Pakistan had been fortunate, the army would have fought and defeated the Taliban and other jihadis a long time ago. But of course we are not so fortunate. Pakistan army believes in jihad, liberation of Kashmir, strategic depth in Afghanistan and 'Fortress of Islam'. So army actually supports jihadis, only attacking those who get out of its control.
How can this disagreement between the world views of democratic government and the army be resolved? The court of final appeal is the people of Pakistan. If the people had all wanted peace, the army would be forced to establish peace. but years of indoctrination mean that a large chunk of population actually favours jihad (the fancy name for war). As long as the public is divided over jihad vs peace question, a democratic government simply cannot firmly move towards either. The result is the confused, mutually contradictory policies we are witnessing today.
The solution? I wish I knew. What we need is a more courageous democratic leadership than what Zardari can deliver. Nawaz Sharif is much more firm towards the army. The other requirement is the creation of confidence in the politicians that the next government will be made and removed only by the people, not by the 3 As (Allah, Army and America). Only then will they obey the people instead of the army. The last point is the need to end the recurrent dream of army generals to control Pakistan, Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir.
All these aims are being slowly achieved by the persistent pressure on army by the media (NLC corruption case), courts (missing people case) and politicians (Chaudhary Nisar and Babar Awan). But the tipping point can be the next general elections. If the parliament completes its term, an independent election commission can be established, attempts to create army-sponsored parties can be exposed (Imran Khan, MMA, united Muslim League minus Nawaz), and voting process is supervised by a free media and judiciary then the new democratic government will be significantly more powerful and confident than the present one. Those elections can show to everyone that army no longer controls the creation of governments in Pakistan.
Operation against Afghan Taliban and Kashmiri jihadis will only be undertaken by an army that has given up its political ambitions. All we can do is to keep up the pressure on the army, to ensure the current government completes its term and that 2013 elections are free from military influence. Then army will finish the civil war and the economy will take off.
Conclusion/ Prediction: Peace will be established after elections in 2013 followed by rapid economic progress. If you buy a plot today, it will be double in value by 2014 :)
P.S. Silence of the Lambs:
Am I revealing some remarkable new insight? Of course not. That peace is more fundamental than transparency for economic development is a well-established fact. But then why don't we hear our media cry about lack of peace in nearly the same way as it does about corruption? The answer is the key.
To condemn lack of peace in Pakistan is to criticise Army and ISI. That is of course taboo. Not only is ISI a 'clear and present danger' to every journalist, but many media men sincerely love military and hate democracy. To them army is the mujahid and democracy is the godless system. You will not even hear the word 'civil war' on the media. Talk about denial of reality. Compare it to criticism of corruption. This nicely focuses on the hated PPP government and the whole democratic system. It also lends support to call for Shariat and Taliban rule. The half-truth is much more attractive than the complete fact.
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